The Year That Was and the Year to Come

Marci • January 2, 2018

2017 is in the rear view mirror and the road to 2018 is directly in front of us! As starting a new year is a great time to gain some perspective, let’s reflect on some of the changes brought about this last year in the Canadian housing and mortgage market, and maybe speculate a little bit about what’s to come. Mortgage writer Steve Huebl from Canadian Mortgage Trends keeps on top of things quite nicely, here are a couple of his latest articles. Let’s look forward, first, then backwards! 

 

The Latest in Mortgage News – 2018 Forecasts

It can be a chore to stay on top of the latest mortgage news these days, particularly given the barrage of forecasts and predictions for housing markets in 2018.

Unsurprisingly, the majority of forecasts for the year ahead have focused on OSFI’s new mortgage rules, including the mortgage stress test for all uninsured mortgages, which officially come into effect on January 1, 2018.

Here’s a sampling of some of the latest forecasts on where home sales and prices are headed in the new year and beyond, and the impact that the new B-20  mortgage rules  are likely to have.

CREA Forecasts Drop in Home Sales

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) came out with its latest  home sales forecast  for 2018, and now expects a 5.3% drop in national sales to 486,000 as a result of OSFI’s new mortgage regulations.

That’s about 8,500 sales lower from its previous forecast. The Association also expects home prices to drop 1.4% in 2018 to $503,100.

“With some homebuyers likely advancing their purchase decision before the new rules come into effect next year, the ‘pull-forward’ of these sales may come at the expense of sales in the first half of 2018,” CREA said in a statement.

“Meanwhile, other potential homebuyers are anticipated to stay on the sidelines as they save up a larger down payment before purchasing and contributing to a modest improvement in sales activity in the second half of 2018.”

Reuters Poll Points to Smaller Home Price Gains

A recent  Reuters poll  of analysts that found home prices are expected to grow just 1.9% in 2018 (vs. the 8.5% gain seen in 2017) due to the tougher mortgage rules and an expectation for further interest rate increases.

Toronto home prices are expected to cool to 2% in 2018 and rise to 3% in 2019, while Vancouver year-over-year price gains are still expected to hit 6% in 2018 before cooling to 4.6% in 2019.

A majority of the analysts surveyed said the new mortgage rules will have a “significant” impact on housing activity, though most noted that higher interest rates pose the biggest risk.

RE/MAX Outlook Points to Growth in the Suburbs

The  2018 Housing Market Outlook  published by RE/MAX noted two distinct trends in 2017 that are expected to continue into 2018: the shift towards condo ownership in Canada’s highest-priced markets, Toronto and Vancouver, as well as a race to the suburbs for prospective homebuyers looking for better affordability.

In 2017, demand for condos in both Toronto and Vancouver continued to outpace supply, with prices increasing 16% and 22% year-over-year, respectively.

RE/MAX forecasts an overall 2.5% increase in residential sale prices in 2018 “as the desire for home ownership remains strong, particularly among Canadian millennials.”

CMHC Sees Moderating Home Price Increases

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is forecasting continued growth in home prices in its  Housing Market  Outlook , but at a more moderate pace.

It expects MLS average home prices to increase from a range of $493,900-$511,300 in 2017, to a range of $499,400-$524,500 by 2019.

CMHC also provided its forecast on expected interest rate increases over the near-term horizon: “In our baseline scenario, the posted 5-year mortgage rate is expected to lie within the 4.9%-5.7% range in 2018 and within the 5.2%-6.2% range in 2019.”

The Contrarian View

The folks over at CIBC don’t foresee OSFI’s new regulations having much material impact on the housing markets in both Vancouver and Toronto, at least not over the long run.

In case you missed the research note from CIBC’s deputy chief economist Ben Tal, he  wrote that government efforts to cool the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets will do little more than soften Canada’s two most expensive housing markets.

“On the surface [the stress test for uninsured mortgages] reduces the purchasing power of typical buyers by close to 20%, and we estimate that no less than 10-15% of mortgage originations will be impacted by that move. However, the actual reduction in demand is likely to be much less significant,” Tal wrote. “We suggest that the combination of the creative imagination of borrowers, some exceptions to the rule and increased activity among alternative lenders will soften the blow to the market as a whole with actual demand slowing by only 5-7% in the coming year.”

Tal also cites supply constraints for new housing development, particularly in Toronto, along with long-term housing demand in Toronto and Vancouver from new immigrants and non-permanent residents as increasing price pressure over the long run.

 

2017 – A Year in Review

As we count down the final days of 2017, we look back on a year that presented fresh challenges for the mortgage industry with the announcement of yet more mortgage rule changes.

While OSFI’s B-20 changes dominated headlines during the later part of the year, here are some of the other top mortgage newsmakers for 2017:

Rate Movements

After two years with the overnight target rate stuck at 0.50%, the Bank of Canada began a new rate hike cycle with quarter-point increases in July and September, with more hikes widely expected in 2018. 

The most important benchmark for fixed-rate pricing is the  5-year government bond  and in 2017 we were reminded of how fast 5-year yields can climb.

Stock Moves

Finally, here’s a look at the performance of Canada’s big banks along with the public companies that make the majority of their revenue in the mortgage business.

1  Discounted mortgage rates reflect estimates taken from the most competitive lenders’ rate sheets, as of December 31.

2  RBC’s 5-year  non-redeemable GIC  with monthly interest is used as a proxy for GIC rates. In reality, some lenders have to pay notably more on their GICs than RBC.

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Get Unbiased Advice: Work with an Independent Mortgage Pro

By Marci Deane • December 24, 2025
Why Work With an Independent Mortgage Professional? If you’re in the market for a mortgage, here’s the most important thing to know: Working with an independent mortgage professional can save you money and provide better options than dealing directly with a single bank. If that’s all you read—great! But if you’d like to understand why that statement is true, keep reading. The Best Mortgage Isn’t Just About the Lowest Rate It’s easy to fall for slick marketing that promotes ultra-low mortgage rates. But the lowest rate doesn’t always mean the lowest cost . The best mortgage is the one that costs you the least amount of money over time —not just the one with the flashiest headline rate. Things like: Prepayment penalties Portability Flexibility to refinance Amortization structure Fixed vs. variable terms …can all affect the true cost of your mortgage. An independent mortgage professional looks beyond the rate. They’ll help you find a product that fits your unique financial situation , long-term goals, and lifestyle—so you’re not hit with expensive surprises down the road. Save Time (and Your Sanity) Applying for a mortgage can be complicated. Every lender has different rules, documents, and policies—and trying to navigate them all on your own can be time-consuming and frustrating. When you work with an independent mortgage professional: You fill out one application They shop that application across multiple lenders You get expert advice tailored to your needs This means less paperwork , less stress , and more confidence in your options. Get Unbiased Advice That Puts You First Bank specialists work for the bank. Their job is to sell you that bank’s mortgage products—whether or not it’s the best deal for you. Independent mortgage professionals work for you. They’re provincially licensed, and their job is to help you: Compare multiple lenders Understand the fine print Make informed, long-term financial decisions And the best part? Their services are typically free to you . Mortgage professionals are paid a standardized fee by the lender when a mortgage is placed—so you get expert guidance without any out-of-pocket cost. Access More Mortgage Options When you go to your bank, you’re limited to that bank’s mortgage products. When you go to an independent mortgage professional, you get access to: Major banks Credit unions Monoline lenders (who only offer mortgages) Alternative and private lenders (if needed) That’s far more choice , and a much better chance of finding a mortgage that truly fits your needs and goals. The Bottom Line If you want to: Save money over the life of your mortgage Save time by avoiding unnecessary back-and-forth Access more lenders and products Get honest, client-first advice …then working with an independent mortgage professional is one of the smartest decisions you can make. Let’s Make a Plan That Works for You If you're ready to talk about mortgage financing—or just want to explore your options—I'm here to help. Let's connect and put together a strategy that makes sense for your goals and your future. Reach out anytime. I’d be happy to help.

Is Alternative Lending the Right Choice for Your Mortgage Needs?

By Marci Deane • December 17, 2025
Alternative Lending in Canada: What It Is and When It Makes Sense Not everyone fits into the traditional lending box—and that’s where alternative mortgage lenders come in. Alternative lending refers to any mortgage solution that falls outside of the typical big bank offerings. These lenders are flexible, creative, and focused on helping Canadians who may not qualify for traditional financing still access the real estate market. Let’s explore when alternative lending might be the right fit for you. 1. You Have Damaged Credit Bad credit doesn’t have to mean your homeownership dreams are over. Many alternative lenders take a big-picture approach . While credit scores matter, they’ll also look at: Stable employment Consistent income Size of your down payment or existing equity If your credit has taken a hit but you can demonstrate strong income and savings—or have a solid explanation for past credit issues— an alternative lender may approve your mortgage when a bank won’t. Pro tip: Use an alternative mortgage as a short-term solution while you rebuild your credit, then refinance into a traditional mortgage with better terms down the line. 2. You're Self-Employed Being your own boss has its perks—but mortgage approval isn’t usually one of them. Traditional lenders require verifiable, consistent income—often two years’ worth. But self-employed Canadians typically write off significant expenses, reducing their declared income. Alternative lenders are more flexible and understanding of self-employed income structures. If your business is profitable and your personal finances are healthy, you may qualify even with lower stated income. Even if interest rates are slightly higher, this option is often worth it—especially when balanced against tax planning and business deductions . 3. You Earn Non-Traditional Income Today’s income sources aren’t always conventional. If you earn through: Airbnb rentals Tips and gratuities Rideshare or delivery apps (like Uber or Uber Eats) Commissions or contracts You might face challenges with traditional lenders. Alternative lenders are often more willing to work with these non-standard income streams , especially if the rest of your mortgage application is strong. Some will consider a shorter income history or evaluate your average earnings in a more flexible way. 4. You Need Expanded Debt-Service Ratios Canada’s mortgage stress test has made it harder for many borrowers to qualify with big banks. Alternative lenders can offer more generous debt-service ratio limits —meaning you might be able to qualify for a larger mortgage or a more suitable home, especially in competitive markets. While traditional GDS/TDS limits typically sit at 35/42 or 39/44 (depending on your credit), some alternative lenders will go higher, especially if: You have a larger down payment Your loan-to-value ratio is lower Your overall financial profile is strong It’s not a free-for-all—but it’s more flexible than bank lending. So, Is Alternative Lending Right for You? Alternative lending is designed to offer solutions when life doesn’t fit the traditional mold . Whether you're rebuilding credit, running your own business, or earning income in new ways, this path could help you get into a home sooner—or keep your current one. And here’s the key: You can only access alternative lenders through the mortgage broker channel . Let’s Explore Your Options Not sure where you fit? That’s okay. Every mortgage story is unique—and I’m here to help you write yours. If you’re curious about alternative mortgage products, want a second opinion, or need help getting approved, let’s talk . I’d be happy to help you explore the best solution for your situation. Reach out anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 10th, 2025

By Marci Deane • December 10, 2025
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.1/4%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario December 10, 2025 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility. Canada’s labour market is showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures of core inflation remain in the range of 2½% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation is still around 2½%. In the near term, CPI inflation is likely to be higher due to the effects of last year’s GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Uncertainty remains elevated. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 28, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released at the same time.