The Year That Was and the Year to Come

Marci • January 2, 2018

2017 is in the rear view mirror and the road to 2018 is directly in front of us! As starting a new year is a great time to gain some perspective, let’s reflect on some of the changes brought about this last year in the Canadian housing and mortgage market, and maybe speculate a little bit about what’s to come. Mortgage writer Steve Huebl from Canadian Mortgage Trends keeps on top of things quite nicely, here are a couple of his latest articles. Let’s look forward, first, then backwards! 

 

The Latest in Mortgage News – 2018 Forecasts

It can be a chore to stay on top of the latest mortgage news these days, particularly given the barrage of forecasts and predictions for housing markets in 2018.

Unsurprisingly, the majority of forecasts for the year ahead have focused on OSFI’s new mortgage rules, including the mortgage stress test for all uninsured mortgages, which officially come into effect on January 1, 2018.

Here’s a sampling of some of the latest forecasts on where home sales and prices are headed in the new year and beyond, and the impact that the new B-20  mortgage rules  are likely to have.

CREA Forecasts Drop in Home Sales

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) came out with its latest  home sales forecast  for 2018, and now expects a 5.3% drop in national sales to 486,000 as a result of OSFI’s new mortgage regulations.

That’s about 8,500 sales lower from its previous forecast. The Association also expects home prices to drop 1.4% in 2018 to $503,100.

“With some homebuyers likely advancing their purchase decision before the new rules come into effect next year, the ‘pull-forward’ of these sales may come at the expense of sales in the first half of 2018,” CREA said in a statement.

“Meanwhile, other potential homebuyers are anticipated to stay on the sidelines as they save up a larger down payment before purchasing and contributing to a modest improvement in sales activity in the second half of 2018.”

Reuters Poll Points to Smaller Home Price Gains

A recent  Reuters poll  of analysts that found home prices are expected to grow just 1.9% in 2018 (vs. the 8.5% gain seen in 2017) due to the tougher mortgage rules and an expectation for further interest rate increases.

Toronto home prices are expected to cool to 2% in 2018 and rise to 3% in 2019, while Vancouver year-over-year price gains are still expected to hit 6% in 2018 before cooling to 4.6% in 2019.

A majority of the analysts surveyed said the new mortgage rules will have a “significant” impact on housing activity, though most noted that higher interest rates pose the biggest risk.

RE/MAX Outlook Points to Growth in the Suburbs

The  2018 Housing Market Outlook  published by RE/MAX noted two distinct trends in 2017 that are expected to continue into 2018: the shift towards condo ownership in Canada’s highest-priced markets, Toronto and Vancouver, as well as a race to the suburbs for prospective homebuyers looking for better affordability.

In 2017, demand for condos in both Toronto and Vancouver continued to outpace supply, with prices increasing 16% and 22% year-over-year, respectively.

RE/MAX forecasts an overall 2.5% increase in residential sale prices in 2018 “as the desire for home ownership remains strong, particularly among Canadian millennials.”

CMHC Sees Moderating Home Price Increases

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is forecasting continued growth in home prices in its  Housing Market  Outlook , but at a more moderate pace.

It expects MLS average home prices to increase from a range of $493,900-$511,300 in 2017, to a range of $499,400-$524,500 by 2019.

CMHC also provided its forecast on expected interest rate increases over the near-term horizon: “In our baseline scenario, the posted 5-year mortgage rate is expected to lie within the 4.9%-5.7% range in 2018 and within the 5.2%-6.2% range in 2019.”

The Contrarian View

The folks over at CIBC don’t foresee OSFI’s new regulations having much material impact on the housing markets in both Vancouver and Toronto, at least not over the long run.

In case you missed the research note from CIBC’s deputy chief economist Ben Tal, he  wrote that government efforts to cool the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets will do little more than soften Canada’s two most expensive housing markets.

“On the surface [the stress test for uninsured mortgages] reduces the purchasing power of typical buyers by close to 20%, and we estimate that no less than 10-15% of mortgage originations will be impacted by that move. However, the actual reduction in demand is likely to be much less significant,” Tal wrote. “We suggest that the combination of the creative imagination of borrowers, some exceptions to the rule and increased activity among alternative lenders will soften the blow to the market as a whole with actual demand slowing by only 5-7% in the coming year.”

Tal also cites supply constraints for new housing development, particularly in Toronto, along with long-term housing demand in Toronto and Vancouver from new immigrants and non-permanent residents as increasing price pressure over the long run.

 

2017 – A Year in Review

As we count down the final days of 2017, we look back on a year that presented fresh challenges for the mortgage industry with the announcement of yet more mortgage rule changes.

While OSFI’s B-20 changes dominated headlines during the later part of the year, here are some of the other top mortgage newsmakers for 2017:

Rate Movements

After two years with the overnight target rate stuck at 0.50%, the Bank of Canada began a new rate hike cycle with quarter-point increases in July and September, with more hikes widely expected in 2018. 

The most important benchmark for fixed-rate pricing is the  5-year government bond  and in 2017 we were reminded of how fast 5-year yields can climb.

Stock Moves

Finally, here’s a look at the performance of Canada’s big banks along with the public companies that make the majority of their revenue in the mortgage business.

1  Discounted mortgage rates reflect estimates taken from the most competitive lenders’ rate sheets, as of December 31.

2  RBC’s 5-year  non-redeemable GIC  with monthly interest is used as a proxy for GIC rates. In reality, some lenders have to pay notably more on their GICs than RBC.

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Why a Mortgage Pre-Approval Protects Both Your Head and Your Heart

By Marci Deane • November 19, 2025
Why a Mortgage Pre-Approval Protects Both Your Head and Your Heart There’s no denying it—buying a home is an emotional journey. In a competitive market, it can feel like you need to stretch beyond your comfort zone or bid above asking just to have a chance. That pressure can make it hard to separate what you want from what you can realistically afford. One of the biggest pitfalls buyers face is falling in love with a home that’s outside their price range. Once that happens, every other property seems like a compromise—even the ones that might have been a perfect fit otherwise. The best way to avoid this heartache? Get pre-approved before you start shopping. What a Pre-Approval Does for You A mortgage pre-approval gives you more than just a number—it provides clarity, confidence, and protection: Know your buying power : Shop within your true price range and avoid disappointment. Spot potential roadblocks : Uncover issues like credit bureau errors before you make an offer. Get organized : Learn exactly what documentation you’ll need so there are no surprises. Lock in a rate : Many lenders hold your rate for 30–120 days, giving you peace of mind if rates rise. Save yourself heartache : Protect yourself from falling for a home you can’t afford. Head vs. Heart Buying a home is about balance. Your head tells you what’s financially sound, your heart tells you what feels right—and both matter. A pre-approval helps bring those two sides together, so you can make confident choices without emotional stress clouding your judgment. The Bottom Line Looking at properties for fun is one thing—but if you’re serious about buying, a pre-approval is the smartest first step you can take. It sets realistic expectations, saves time, and protects your emotions along the way. If you’d like to explore your options and get pre-approved, I’d be happy to walk through the process with you. Let’s make sure you’re ready to shop with confidence.

Co-Signing a Mortgage in Canada: Pros, Cons & What to Expect

By Marci Deane • November 12, 2025
Co-Signing a Mortgage in Canada: Pros, Cons & What to Expect Thinking about co-signing a mortgage? On the surface, it might seem like a simple way to help someone you care about achieve homeownership. But before you sign on the dotted line, it’s important to understand exactly what co-signing means—for them and for you. You’re Fully Responsible When you co-sign, your name is on the mortgage—and that makes you just as responsible as the primary borrower. If payments are missed, the lender won’t only go after them; they’ll come after you too. Missed payments or default can damage your credit score and put your financial health at risk. That’s why trust is key. If you’re going to co-sign, make sure you have a clear picture of the borrower’s ability to manage payments—and consider monitoring the account to protect yourself. You’re Committed Until They Can Stand Alone Co-signing isn’t temporary by default. Even once the initial mortgage term ends, you won’t automatically be removed. The borrower has to re-qualify on their own, and only then can your name be taken off. If they don’t qualify, you stay on the mortgage for another term. Before agreeing, talk openly about expectations: How long might you be on the mortgage? What’s the plan for eventually removing you? Having these conversations upfront prevents surprises later. It Affects Your Own Borrowing Power When lenders calculate your debt service ratios, the co-signed mortgage counts as your debt—even if you never make a payment on it. This could reduce how much you’re able to borrow in the future, whether it’s for your own home, an investment property, or even refinancing. If you see another mortgage in your future, you’ll want to consider how co-signing could limit your options. The Upside: Helping Someone Get Ahead On the positive side, co-signing can be life-changing for the borrower. You could be helping a family member or friend buy their first home, start building equity, or take an important step forward financially. If handled with clear expectations and trust, it can be a meaningful way to support someone you care about. The Bottom Line Co-signing a mortgage comes with both risks and rewards. It’s not a decision to take lightly, but with careful planning, transparency, and professional advice, it can be done responsibly. If you’re considering co-signing—or want to explore safer alternatives—let’s connect. I’d be happy to walk you through what to expect and help you decide if it’s the right move for you.

Everything You Need to Know About Mortgage Financing in Canada

By Marci Deane • November 5, 2025
For most Canadians, buying a home isn’t possible without a mortgage. And while getting a mortgage may seem straightforward—borrow money, buy a home, pay it back—it’s the details that make the difference. Understanding how mortgages work (and what to watch out for) is key to keeping your borrowing costs as low as possible. The Basics: How a Mortgage Works A mortgage is a loan secured against your property. You agree to pay it back over an amortization period (often 25 years), divided into shorter terms (ranging from 6 months to 10 years). Each term comes with its own interest rate and rules. While the interest rate is important, it’s not the only thing that determines the true cost of your mortgage. Features, penalties, and flexibility all play a role—and sometimes a slightly higher rate can save you thousands in the long run. Key Questions to Ask Before Choosing a Mortgage How long will you stay in the property? Your timeframe helps determine the right term length and product. Do you need flexibility to move? If a work transfer or lifestyle change is possible, portability may be important. What are the penalties for breaking the mortgage early? This is one of the biggest factors in the real cost of borrowing. A low rate won’t save you if breaking costs you tens of thousands. How are penalties calculated? Some lenders use more borrower-friendly formulas than others. It’s not easy to calculate yourself—get professional help. Can you make extra payments? Prepayment privileges allow you to pay off your mortgage faster, potentially saving years of interest. How is the mortgage registered on title? Some registrations (like collateral charges) can limit your ability to switch lenders at renewal without extra costs. Which type of mortgage fits best? Fixed, variable, HELOCs, or even reverse mortgages each have their place depending on your financial and life situation. What’s your down payment? A larger down payment could reduce or eliminate mortgage insurance premiums, saving thousands upfront. Why the Lowest Rate Isn’t Always the Best Choice It’s tempting to chase the lowest rate, but mortgages with rock-bottom pricing often come with restrictive terms. For example, saving 0.10% on your rate may put a few extra dollars in your pocket each month, but if the mortgage has harsh penalties, you could end up paying thousands more if you break it early. The goal isn’t just the lowest rate—it’s the lowest overall cost of borrowing . That’s why it’s so important to look beyond the headline number and consider the whole picture. The Bottom Line Mortgage financing in Canada is about more than rate shopping. It’s about aligning your mortgage with your financial goals, lifestyle, and future plans. The best way to do that is to work with an independent mortgage professional who can walk you through the fine print and help you secure the product that truly keeps your costs low. If you’d like to explore your options—or review your current mortgage to see if it’s really working in your favour—let’s connect. I’d be happy to help.