Tempered Rate Hike Forecasts for 2019

Marci • December 12, 2018

Floating-rate mortgage holders who had feared the Bank of Canada’s recent full-steam-ahead view towards continued rate hikes can take a breather—at least for now.

The central bank adopted a more dovish stance at yesterday’s rate hold announcement, which confirmed a growing chorus of analysts who now expect the bank to take a slower pace on future rate hikes.

“Recent events aren’t likely to push the bank off of a tightening path, but they do remove any urgency in getting to a neutral policy rate,” wrote Brian DePratto, a senior economist with TD Bank. “We no longer expect the Bank of Canada to hike its policy interest rate in January. Spring 2019 now appears to be the more likely timing, allowing for the bank to ensure that the growth narrative is back on track.”

Just a month and a half earlier, when the BoC hiked rates for the fifth time in 15 months to 1.75%, it made clear its intention to bring rates to a “neutral range” it says is needed to keep inflation in check while not hindering the economy. It estimated that range to be between 2.50% and 3.50%.

The BoC reiterated this intention yesterday, but admitted it may now take longer to get there. “The appropriate pace of rate increases will depend on a number of factors,” the bank’s statement read.

And again this morning, during a speech in Toronto, Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated that the pace of increases will be “decidedly data dependent.”

“We will continue to gauge the impact of higher interest rates on consumption and housing, and monitor global trade policy developments,” he said. “The persistence of the oil price shock, the evolution of business investment and our assessment of the economy’s capacity will also factor importantly into our decisions about the future stance of monetary policy.”

Bond Market Skeptical About Future Rate Hikes

Despite the Bank of Canada’s commitment to higher rates, the bond market is signalling it’s not so sure.

The Canadian 5-year bond yield, which leads fixed mortgage rates, has plummeted to a six-month low.

“The bond market has doubts about the Bank of Canada’s commitment to rate hikes in 2019,” Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at ForexLive, told CMT.

“Those doubts turned to outright defiance after [yesterday’s] statement,” he added. “The market is now pricing in fewer than two rate hikes in 2019. Before the BoC statement, the market was looking for a 65% chance of a hike at the January 9 meeting. That’s plunged to 25% and now a hike isn’t fully priced in before mid-year.”

What Does This Mean for Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rate observers can be forgiven for expecting fixed rates to fall. With a decline in bond yields of this magnitude, that’s what you would normally see.

But Robert McLister, founder of rate-comparison website RateSpy.com,  explained  that things are different this time.

“Normally we’d have seen at least one bank chop advertised fixed rates by now. But not this time. Banks are purposely padding margins,” he wrote. “On top of this, banks are increasingly building in small premiums to offset the policy/rate-driven slowdown in housing/mortgage growth, late-cycle housing/economic risk, and more stringent capital rules.”

Floating Rates Looking Attractive Again

With inflated fixed rates and the prospect of fewer Bank of Canada rate hikes over the next year, variable and adjustable-rate mortgages are looking more appealing to an increasing share of mortgage shoppers.

Nearly a third of CMHC-insured homebuyers (31%) chose a variable-rate mortgage over a fixed rate in the third quarter of 2018, the housing agency reported last week.

This is the highest share of high-ratio borrowers to choose variable rates since CMHC began tracking these figures. Typically no more than 20% go variable, according to the agency’s historical data.

McLister said the best variable rates for default-insured mortgages are currently around 2.80%, or 3.04% for those who are refinancing.

“That gives you at least a three-rate-hike head start over conventional 5-year fixed rates,” he noted.

 

This article was written by Steve Huebl and was originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends on December 10th 2018. 

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Collateral vs. Standard Mortgage: Pros and Cons Explained

By Marci Deane • June 17, 2026
Mortgage Registration 101: What You Need to Know About Standard vs. Collateral Charges When you’re setting up a mortgage, it’s easy to focus on the rate and monthly payment—but what about how your mortgage is registered? Most borrowers don’t realize this, but there are two common ways your lender can register your mortgage: as a standard charge or a collateral charge . And that choice can affect your flexibility, future borrowing power, and even your ability to switch lenders. Let’s break down what each option means—without the legal jargon. What Is a Standard Charge Mortgage? Think of this as the “traditional” mortgage. With a standard charge, your lender registers exactly what you’ve borrowed on the property title. Nothing more. Nothing hidden. Just the principal amount of your mortgage. Here’s why that matters: When your mortgage term is up, you can usually switch to another lender easily —often without legal fees, as long as your terms stay the same. If you want to borrow more money down the line (for example, for renovations or debt consolidation), you’ll need to requalify and break your current mortgage , which can come with penalties and legal costs. It’s straightforward, transparent, and offers more freedom to shop around at renewal time. What Is a Collateral Charge Mortgage? This is a more flexible—but also more complex—type of mortgage registration. Instead of registering just the amount you borrow, a collateral charge mortgage registers for a higher amount , often up to 100%–125% of your home’s value . Why? To allow you to borrow additional funds in the future without redoing your mortgage. Here’s the upside: If your home’s value goes up or you need access to funds, a collateral charge mortgage may let you re-borrow more easily (if you qualify). It can bundle other credit products—like a line of credit or personal loan—into one master agreement. But there are trade-offs: You can’t switch lenders at renewal without hiring a lawyer and paying legal fees to discharge the mortgage. It may limit your ability to get a second mortgage with another lender because the original lender is registered for a higher amount than you actually owe. Which One Should You Choose? The answer depends on what matters more to you: flexibility in future borrowing , or freedom to shop around for better rates at renewal. Why Talk to a Mortgage Broker? This kind of decision shouldn’t be made by default—or by what a single lender offers. An independent mortgage professional can help you: Understand how your mortgage is registered (most people never ask!) Compare lenders that offer both options Make sure your mortgage aligns with your future goals—not just today’s needs We look at your full financial picture and explain the fine print so you can move forward with confidence—not surprises. Have questions? Let’s talk. Whether you’re renewing, refinancing, or buying for the first time, I’m here to help you make smart, informed choices about your mortgage. No pressure—just answers.

Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25% — June 10, 2026

By Marci Deane • June 10, 2026
The Bank of Canada announced today that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. For Canadian homeowners, buyers, and anyone with a mortgage on the horizon — here's what you need to know.

First-Time Buyer? Here’s How to Tell If You’re Ready

By Marci Deane • June 3, 2026
Ready to Buy Your First Home? Here’s How to Know for Sure Buying your first home is exciting—but it’s also a major financial decision. So how can you tell if you’re truly ready to take that leap into homeownership? Whether you’re confident or still unsure, these four signs are solid indicators that you’re on the right path: 1. You’ve Got Your Down Payment and Closing Costs in Place To purchase a home in Canada, you’ll need at least 5% of the purchase price as a down payment. In addition, plan for around 1.5% to 2% of the home’s value to cover closing costs like legal fees, insurance, and adjustments. If you’ve managed to save this on your own, that’s a great sign of financial discipline. If you're receiving help from a family member through a gifted down payment , that works too—as long as the paperwork is in order. Either way, having these funds ready shows you’re prepared for the upfront costs of homeownership. 2. Your Credit Profile Tells a Good Story Lenders want to know how you manage debt. Before they approve you for a mortgage, they’ll review your credit history. What they typically like to see: At least two active credit accounts (trade lines) , like a credit card or loan Each with a minimum limit of $2,000 Open and active for at least 2 years Even if your credit isn’t perfect, don’t panic. There may still be options, such as using a co-signer or working on a credit improvement plan with a mortgage expert. 3. Your Income Can Support Homeownership—Comfortably A steady income is essential, but not all income is treated equally. If you’re full-time and past probation , you’re in a strong position. If you’re self-employed, on contract, or rely on variable income like tips or commissions, you’ll generally need a two-year history to qualify. A general rule: housing costs (mortgage, taxes, utilities) should stay under 35% of your gross monthly income . That leaves plenty of room for other living expenses, savings, and—yes—some fun too. 4. You’ve Talked to a Mortgage Professional Let’s be real—there’s a lot of info out there about buying a home. Google searches and TikToks can only take you so far. If you're serious about buying, speaking with a mortgage professional is the most effective next step. Why? Because you'll: Get pre-approved (and know what price range you're working with) Understand your loan options and the qualification process Build a game plan that suits your timeline and financial goals The Bottom Line: Being “ready” to buy a home isn’t just about how much you want it—it’s about being financially prepared, credit-ready, and backed by expert advice. If you’re thinking about homeownership, let’s chat. I’d love to help you understand your options, crunch the numbers, and build a plan that gets you confidently across the finish line—keys in hand.