Interest Rate Hikes Eroding Housing Affordability

Marci • July 13, 2018

After improving slightly late last year, housing affordability has now reached “crisis levels” in Vancouver and is posing a “tremendous challenge” in Toronto.

That’s the assessment from RBC’s latest Housing Trends and Affordability report , which says higher interest rates are the main reason for a deterioration in affordability right across the country.

“The winning streak for housing affordability in Canada ended,” the report reads, noting the aggregate affordability measure for Canada rose by 0.4 percentage points to 48.4% in Q1. “This rise entirely reversed the slight 0.3 percentage-point decline recorded in the previous quarter—the first decline in 10 quarters.”

Unsurprisingly, Toronto and Vancouver led the way as the country’s least affordable markets.

In Vancouver it takes 87.8% of household income to cover the costs of home ownership, the report said, while in Toronto that percentage is 74.2%. Compare that against the national average of 48.4%, or 43.7% in Montreal, 43% in Calgary and just 28% in Edmonton.

“[Affordability] is at crisis levels in Vancouver and poses a tremendous challenge for many Toronto-area buyers despite improving in the past two quarters,” the report noted.

Overall, higher interest rates were cited as the main factor for sending homeownership costs to a multi-decade high, while the situation was amplified in both Vancouver and Victoria due to a return to appreciating prices.

Although affordability in Toronto remains a concern, the report noted that it was one of only two markets, along with Winnipeg, to see a small improvement.

“The main reason was that home prices fell enough in both markets to counteract the effect of higher interest rates,” RBC noted. “In the case of the Toronto area, the mortgage stress test that came into effect in January added further downward pressure on property values—which were still adjusting to last year’s Fair Housing Plan implemented by the Ontario government.”

But that may not be the case for much longer, as the Toronto Real Estate Board’s latest data shows the average price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area climbed to a 13-month high in June—up 2 percent year-over-year to $807,871.

National Bank published similar findings to RBC recently in its Housing Affordability Monitor. It noted that the mortgage payment on a representative home as a percentage of median income rose by 1.2 points—the 11th straight month that this metric had increased.

Given the limited capacity for Vancouver and Toronto homebuyers to put more of their income towards housing than they already are, the National Bank report concluded that prices could start to decline should interest rates continue to increase.

“Since we don’t see how Vancouver and Toronto homebuyers could pay a higher share of their incomes for shelter, a downward adjustment of prices is conceivable,” the authors write. “If our scenario for interest rates out to the end of 2019 materializes (+75 basis point on the 5-year mortgage rate), and assuming historically average income growth, prices would need to fall on the order of 2% to keep home affordability from deteriorating further.”

 

This article was written by Steve Huebl and was originally published on Canadian Mortgage Trends on July 5th 2018. 

Share

By Marci Deane February 12, 2025
If you need a mortgage, working with an independent mortgage professional will save you money and provide you with better options than dealing with a single financial institution. And if that is the only sentence you read in this entire article, you already know all you need to know. However, if you’d like to dig a little deeper, here are some reasons that outline why working with an independent mortgage professional is in your best interest. The best mortgage is the one that costs you the least over the long term. An independent mortgage professional can help you achieve this. Mortgages aren’t created equally. Oftentimes slick marketing leads us to believe the lowest “sticker price” is the best value. So when it comes to mortgage financing, you might assume the mortgage with the lowest rate is the best option. This isn’t always the case. When considering a mortgage, your goal should be to find the mortgage that will cost you the least amount of money over the total length of the mortgage. There are many factors to consider, such as your specific financial situation, the rate, initial term length, fixed or variable rate structure, amortization, and the penalties incurred should you need to break your mortgage early; the fine print matters. An independent mortgage professional can walk through all these factors with you and will help you find the mortgage that best suits your needs. Sometimes taking a mortgage with a slightly higher rate can make sense if it gives you flexibility down the line or helps you avoid huge payout penalties. Working the numbers with an independent mortgage professional will save you money in the long run instead of just going with what a single lender is offering. Save time by letting an independent mortgage professional find the best mortgage product for you. Let's face it, getting a mortgage can be challenging enough on its own. Everyone’s financial situation is a little different and making sense of lender guidelines is a full-time job in itself. So instead of dealing with multiple lending institutions on your own, when you work with an independent mortgage professional, you submit a single mortgage application that is compared to the lending guidelines of various mortgage lenders. This will save you time as you don’t have to go from bank to bank to ensure you’re getting the best mortgage. Simply put, an independent mortgage professional works for you and has your best interest in mind, while a bank specialist works for the bank and has the bank's best interest in mind. It’s no secret that Canadian banks make a lot of money. It seems every quarter they turn billions of dollars in profit (despite the economic environment). They do this at the expense of their customers by charging as much interest as they can and structuring mortgages to their benefit. It’s all about the alignment of interest. Bank employees work for the bank; the bank pays them to make money for the bank. In contrast, independent mortgage professionals are provincially licensed to work for their clients and are paid a standardized placement or finder’s fee for matching borrowers with lenders. When you work with a single bank, you only have access to the products of that bank. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, you have access to all of the lenders that mortgage professionals have relationships with and all their products. Working with an independent mortgage professional will save you money, time, and provide you with better mortgage options. Plus, you have the added benefit of working with a licensed professional looking out for your best interest, providing you with the best possible advice. If you’d like to know more or to discuss mortgage financing, please connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you.
By Marci Deane February 5, 2025
Chances are, buying a home is one of the most important financial decisions you’ll make in your life. And as mortgage financing can be somewhat confusing at the best of times, to alleviate some of the stress and to ensure your home purchase goes as smoothly as possible, here are six very high-level steps you should follow. While it might seem like the best place to start the home buying process is to browse MLS on your phone and then contact a Realtor to go out and look at properties, it’s not. First, you’re going to want to work with a licensed independent mortgage professional. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, instead of working with a single bank, you’ll be working with someone who has your best interest in mind and can present you with mortgage options from several financial institutions. The second step in the home buying process is to put together a mortgage plan. Unless you have enough money in the bank to buy a home with cash, you’re going to need a mortgage. And as mortgage financing can be challenging and not so straightforward, the best time to start planning for a mortgage is right now. Don’t make another move until you discuss your financial situation with an independent mortgage professional. It’s never too early to start planning. As part of your mortgage plan, you’ll want to figure out what you can afford on paper, assess your credit score, run some financial scenarios, calculate mortgage payments, and have a clear picture of exactly how much money is required for a downpayment and closing costs. You’ll also be able to discuss which mortgage product is best for you, considering different mortgage terms, types, amortizations, and features. Now, what you qualify to borrow on paper doesn’t necessarily mean you can actually afford the payments in real life. You need to consider your lifestyle and what you spend your money on. Understanding your cash flow is the key. Make a budget to verify you can actually afford your proposed mortgage payments and that you have enough funds to close on the mortgage. No one wants to be house-poor or left scrambling to come up with funds to close at the last minute. If everything looks good at this point, the next step will be to get a preapproval in place. Now, a pre-approval is more than just typing some numbers into a form or online calculator; you need to complete a mortgage application and submit all the documents requested by your mortgage professional. Only proceed with looking at properties when you’ve been given the green light from your mortgage professional. When you’ve found a property to purchase, you’ll work very closely with your mortgage professional to arrange mortgage financing in a short period of time. This is where being prepared pays off. As you’ve already collected and submitted many documents upfront during the preapproval process, you should be set up for success. However, remain flexible and provide any additional documentation required by the lender to secure mortgage financing. Once you have firm lender approval and you’ve removed conditions on the purchase agreement, don’t change anything about your financial situation until you have the keys. Don’t quit your job, don’t take out a new loan, or don’t make a large withdrawal from your bank account. Put your life into a holding pattern until you take possession of your new home. So there you have it, six steps to ensuring a smooth home purchase: Work with an independent mortgage professional. Put together a mortgage plan. Figure out what you can actually afford. Get a pre-approval. Provide the necessary documentation. Don’t change anything about your financial situation until you take possession. If you’d like to discuss your personal financial situation and find the best mortgage product for you, let’s work together. We can figure out a plan to buy a home as stress-free as possible. Please connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you.
By Marci Deane January 30, 2025
The Bank of Canada has lowered its overnight rate by 25 basis points—the sixth cut since June last year. It also plans to end quantitative tightening and normalize its balance sheet.  This brings the BOC rate to 3.00% and we expect lenders to cut their Prime Lending rate to 5.20%. This is all good news and will help variable rate mortgage holders. However, the Bank warns of "more-than-usual uncertainty," especially with potential U.S. trade tariffs on the horizon. To say that predictions about future rate trajectory are tricky is quite the understatement at this point. Below is a summary of all the factors impacting the Canadian Economy, the Bank of Canada and interest rates right now. Canadian Economy & Housing Lower rates are boosting the economy, with consumer spending and housing activity picking up. Business investment remains weak. Exports should benefit from new oil and gas capacity. Inflation Outlook CPI inflation is near 2%, though temporarily affected by the GST/HST suspension on some goods. Housing costs are still high but gradually easing. Broad indicators suggest underlying inflation is very close to the 2% target. The Bank expects inflation to remain near 2% over the next two years. Labour Market Unemployment sits at 6.7%, signaling a soft labour market. Job growth has picked up after lagging behind workforce expansion. Wage pressures are easing, but progress has been slow. Global Economy, Bond Yields & Canadian Dollar Global GDP is expected to grow 3% annually over the next two years. U.S. growth is stronger than expected, while Europe lags. China’s economy is stabilizing after recent policy support. U.S. bond yields have risen, but Canadian yields are down slightly. The Canadian dollar has weakened against the U.S. dollar due to trade uncertainty. Oil prices have been volatile, recently settling about $5 higher than October projections. Other Key Announcements The Bank will complete balance sheet normalization and resume asset purchases in March 2025. With inflation near 2% and the economy in excess supply, the Bank deemed a rate cut necessary. The impact of rate cuts since June has been "substantial," fueling household spending and gradual economic strengthening. Outlook from the BOC today: The Bank projects 1.8% GDP growth for both 2025 and 2026. Lower immigration targets will slow population growth, moderating overall economic expansion. The risks in the outlook are "reasonably balanced" unless U.S. trade tensions escalate, which could weaken GDP and push prices higher. The Bank reaffirmed its commitment to price stability. Bottom line: The Bank is cutting rates to support growth, but uncertainties—especially trade risks—loom large. So, what to do? Variable rate or Fixed rate? The jury is out on this for the moment but less risk averse borrowers may want to consider a Variable if they believe recessionary pressures will push rates down. The counter argument to this is that Tariffs could cause inflation and thus, push the BOC to increase rates. Given this chance, risk averse borrowers might therefore prefer to “set it and forget it” with a fixed rate. It comes down to a very personal decision and analyzing the financial position and future goals for each borrower. Please reach out to review your personal plans and we can help you weigh the risks based on your personal financial situation.
Share by: