Interest Rate Cut Speculation Heats Up!

Ask Marci • May 6, 2024

Rate cut speculation is heating up! We wanted to touch on a few things in regard to the big “interest rate conversation”. Yes, the Bank of Canada will very likely start cutting the Bank of Canada rate this summer (perhaps as soon as next month). This will immediately impact Variable Rate mortgage holders. Currently, the prime lending rate is 7.20% meaning a 0.25% rate cut by the BOC should mean that banks will follow suit and cut prime to 6.95%. The US jobs numbers on Friday have improved the odds of a predicted BOC bank cut. This week rate watchers will be focused on the Canadian numbers (due out on Friday May 10th). Economists that we follow speculate that the current fixed rates are already pricing in the BOC’s first two cuts. This means that a cut in June or July may not impact fixed rates at all. The cut will narrow the spread between fixed and variable. If history is a predictor, this chart we created illustrates this where the green line will simply drop, narrowing the gap between prime, fixed and variable.

Here's what we know right now: 

“When the probability of next-meeting rate cuts exceeds 60%, it's safe to start feeling confident about near-term easing. As we speak, we're at 74% for the BoC's June 5 meeting. So, if not June, it may be Christmas in July for Canadian borrowers.” Robert McLister, Mortgage Logic News May 3, 2034


For mortgage holders up for renewal and buyers entering the market, the big question right now is fixed or variable? Short term or lock in for 3 years? Or set it and forget it at 5 years? 


We now have one lender offering a short term promo of Prime minus 1.01%  for a variable rate. Is this the right move to ride the BOC cuts down?  Fixed rates for shorter terms are still over 6% and the three-year and five-year terms are in the mid to low 5’s. 


What should borrowers be choosing? This is a very personal decision and will depend on personal goals, budgets, risk tolerance and time horizon for holding the mortgage.


We have some fancy tools that can help with the decision make process. Here’s one example where we compared a $500,000 Mortgage taking a 3-year fixed at 5.44% (renewing into a Variable in 3 years) versus the 5-year variable at 6.29% and modelling 0.25% rate cuts as follows:  in 2 cuts in 2024, 2 cuts in 2025, 1 cut in 2026 and 1 cut in 2027. 

In this case, the 3-year fixed rate “wins” but the savings is minimal. There are many factors to consider here including that taking the higher variable rate now would mean that this borrower qualifies for a lower mortgage amount (stress testing at 8.19% instead of 7.44%). Of course, the other BIG factor is that we are guessing that prime will drop and at the pace we have modelled out.


All this is to say that the rate conversation is a complicated. We love helping borrowers make informed decisions about their mortgage choice whether they are buying or they are renewing. If you have questions or want us to run some numbers, please reach out. 

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How Property Type and Condition Influence Mortgage Financing

By Marci Deane • September 30, 2026
Why the Property Matters When You’re Qualifying for a Mortgage When qualifying for a mortgage, lenders typically look at four core areas: Income Credit Down payment or equity The property itself Most buyers focus heavily on income, credit, and savings—and for good reason. But even if those boxes are checked, the property can still determine whether a mortgage is approved. Why Lenders Care About the Property From a lender’s perspective, the property is the collateral for the mortgage. In the unlikely event of default, they need to know the home can be sold quickly and at fair market value to recover their funds. Because of this, lenders are careful about the condition, value, and marketability of any property they finance. Homes that are in poor repair, unconventional, or overpriced can raise red flags—even when the borrower is well qualified. Appraisals Are Always Part of the Process Every mortgage requires an appraisal to confirm value. Insured mortgages (through CMHC, Sagen, or Canada Guaranty) often use an automated valuation model completed online. Conventional mortgages typically require a full, on-site appraisal by a certified appraiser. This appraisal is not optional and happens after an offer is accepted—not at the pre-approval stage. Why Pre-Approvals Aren’t a Guarantee A pre-approval is a great first step, but it only assesses you, not the property. Once you’ve made an offer, the lender must approve the specific home you’re buying. Understanding this upfront helps avoid surprises and confusion later in the process. The Risk of Buying Without a Financing Condition In competitive markets, buyers sometimes remove financing conditions to strengthen their offer. However, this comes with risk. If the appraisal comes back low—or the lender is concerned about the property’s condition—you could be denied financing after the offer is firm. In that scenario, your deposit may be at risk. Buying a Home That Needs Work If you’re considering a property that isn’t in perfect condition, there are solutions. A purchase plus improvements program allows you to buy a home and include renovation costs in your mortgage. The process is structured and requires planning, but it can be an excellent way to turn a fixer-upper into a great long-term investment. Final Thoughts Mortgage approval isn’t based solely on your finances—the property matters just as much. Knowing this ahead of time helps you make smarter offers, reduce risk, and plan more effectively. If you’re buying a property that needs work or want clarity on how a lender may view a specific home, feel free to reach out. I’d be happy to walk you through your options and help you plan with confidence.

What You Need to Know About Mortgages and Parental Leave

By Marci Deane • September 23, 2026
If the title of this article caught your attention, chances are your family is growing. Congratulations. If you’re thinking now is the right time to move into a home that better fits your growing family—but you’re unsure how parental leave affects your ability to qualify for a mortgage—you’re in the right place. Here’s the good news. Qualifying for a mortgage while on parental leave is possible when it’s done correctly. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, lenders can often qualify you based on your return-to-work income , as long as you can provide documentation confirming you have guaranteed employment waiting for you. A word of caution If you walk into a bank branch and disclose that you’re currently on parental leave, there’s a chance the bank will only allow you to qualify using your parental leave income. That can significantly reduce your borrowing power. Parental leave income is typically limited to 55% of your previous earnings, up to a weekly maximum. Qualifying on that amount alone can restrict your options and impact the type of home you can purchase. Why lender choice matters One of the biggest advantages of working with an independent mortgage professional is choice . You’re not limited to one lender’s rules or products. Some lenders will allow you to qualify using 100% of your confirmed return-to-work income , which can make a meaningful difference in your approval amount and overall options. What you’ll need to qualify Most lenders will require an employment letter that includes: Employer name (preferably on company letterhead) Your job title Original start date (to confirm probation has been completed) Confirmed return-to-work date Guaranteed salary upon return Lenders want reassurance that your income will resume once parental leave ends. You may also be asked to provide income history from the past couple of years, which is standard for most mortgage applications. One important note Whether or not you actually return to work after parental leave is entirely your decision. From a mortgage perspective, qualification is based on having a confirmed position available to you at the time of approval. If you have questions about qualifying for a mortgage while on parental leave—or anything mortgage-related—please connect anytime. I’d be happy to walk you through your options and help you plan with confidence.

Need Funds Between Buying and Selling? Here’s How Deposit Loans & Bridge Financing Help

By Marci Deane • September 16, 2026
You’ve outgrown your current home. It no longer fits your life, so moving makes sense. And you’re not interested in juggling two properties. Selling first and buying something new feels like the right move. Ideally, you want possession of the new home before leaving the old one. That overlap makes moving easier, reduces stress, and gives you time to paint, renovate, or settle in before the boxes arrive. But there’s a common challenge. What if the down payment for your next home is tied up in the equity of the one you’re selling? That’s where bridge financing comes in. How bridge financing works Bridge financing temporarily unlocks equity from your current home once it has a firm sale . It bridges the gap between selling your existing property and purchasing your next one, allowing you to use that equity toward your down payment. What about competitive markets? In a hot market, a strong offer often means a larger deposit . If you don’t have that cash sitting in your account, but you do have equity, a deposit loan can help you compete with confidence. The non-negotiable requirement To qualify for bridge financing or a deposit loan, your current home must have a firm, unconditional sale . No firm sale = no bridge or deposit loan. Lenders need certainty to calculate available equity and manage risk. Bottom line A firm sale is the key that unlocks bridge financing and deposit loans. If you’re planning a move and want to understand how these options could work for you, let’s talk. I’m always happy to walk you through your options and help you plan your next step with confidence.