Interest Rate Cut Speculation Heats Up!

Ask Marci • May 6, 2024

Rate cut speculation is heating up! We wanted to touch on a few things in regard to the big “interest rate conversation”. Yes, the Bank of Canada will very likely start cutting the Bank of Canada rate this summer (perhaps as soon as next month). This will immediately impact Variable Rate mortgage holders. Currently, the prime lending rate is 7.20% meaning a 0.25% rate cut by the BOC should mean that banks will follow suit and cut prime to 6.95%. The US jobs numbers on Friday have improved the odds of a predicted BOC bank cut. This week rate watchers will be focused on the Canadian numbers (due out on Friday May 10th). Economists that we follow speculate that the current fixed rates are already pricing in the BOC’s first two cuts. This means that a cut in June or July may not impact fixed rates at all. The cut will narrow the spread between fixed and variable. If history is a predictor, this chart we created illustrates this where the green line will simply drop, narrowing the gap between prime, fixed and variable.

Here's what we know right now: 

“When the probability of next-meeting rate cuts exceeds 60%, it's safe to start feeling confident about near-term easing. As we speak, we're at 74% for the BoC's June 5 meeting. So, if not June, it may be Christmas in July for Canadian borrowers.” Robert McLister, Mortgage Logic News May 3, 2034


For mortgage holders up for renewal and buyers entering the market, the big question right now is fixed or variable? Short term or lock in for 3 years? Or set it and forget it at 5 years? 


We now have one lender offering a short term promo of Prime minus 1.01%  for a variable rate. Is this the right move to ride the BOC cuts down?  Fixed rates for shorter terms are still over 6% and the three-year and five-year terms are in the mid to low 5’s. 


What should borrowers be choosing? This is a very personal decision and will depend on personal goals, budgets, risk tolerance and time horizon for holding the mortgage.


We have some fancy tools that can help with the decision make process. Here’s one example where we compared a $500,000 Mortgage taking a 3-year fixed at 5.44% (renewing into a Variable in 3 years) versus the 5-year variable at 6.29% and modelling 0.25% rate cuts as follows:  in 2 cuts in 2024, 2 cuts in 2025, 1 cut in 2026 and 1 cut in 2027. 

In this case, the 3-year fixed rate “wins” but the savings is minimal. There are many factors to consider here including that taking the higher variable rate now would mean that this borrower qualifies for a lower mortgage amount (stress testing at 8.19% instead of 7.44%). Of course, the other BIG factor is that we are guessing that prime will drop and at the pace we have modelled out.


All this is to say that the rate conversation is a complicated. We love helping borrowers make informed decisions about their mortgage choice whether they are buying or they are renewing. If you have questions or want us to run some numbers, please reach out. 

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RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan Explained: A Smart Way to Buy Your First Home

By Marci Deane • July 22, 2026
Saving for a down payment is one of the biggest challenges first-time buyers face. What many don’t realize is that the Canadian government offers a program designed to make it easier—the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) . This program allows you to withdraw money from your RRSP to help purchase your first home, without immediate tax consequences. Here’s how it works: Who Qualifies? To be eligible, you generally need to be a first-time home buyer. In practical terms, this means you must not have owned a home in the past four years, nor lived in a property owned by your spouse or partner during that time. There are also special allowances if you’re living with a disability or helping a relative with a disability. In these cases, you can use the HBP even if you’ve owned a home more recently. How Much Can You Withdraw? Under the program, you can access up to $35,000 from your RRSP as an individual. Couples can combine their withdrawals for a total of $70,000 . These funds must have been in your RRSP for at least 90 days before you take them out. Paying It Back The HBP isn’t “free money”—it’s an interest-free loan from your own retirement savings. You’ll have 15 years to repay the full amount back into your RRSP, starting in the second year after withdrawal. Each year, the CRA will send you an HBP Statement of Account outlining how much needs to be repaid. If you don’t make your repayment in a given year, that amount will be added to your taxable income. Why It’s a Smart Strategy The HBP can give first-time buyers a powerful boost toward homeownership. It helps you put together a larger down payment, which can reduce your mortgage amount and monthly payments. Just remember: it’s important to balance the short-term benefit of homeownership with the long-term impact on your retirement savings. Next Steps Thinking about using the Home Buyers’ Plan? Let’s sit down and review whether it’s the right move for you. Together, we can create a strategy that gets you into your first home while keeping your future financial goals on track. 📞 Reach out anytime—it would be a pleasure to guide you through the process.

Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25% — July 15, 2026

By Marci Deane • July 15, 2026
The Bank of Canada announced today that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The tone of today's announcement is notably more optimistic than previous months. Here's what's changed and what it means for you.

Let’s Talk About Getting Top Dollar for Your Property

By Marci Deane • July 8, 2026
When it comes to selling your home, most people think the first call should be to a real estate agent. But the smartest first step often isn’t with your agent—it’s with an independent mortgage professional. Why? Because your mortgage plays a bigger role in your bottom line than most people realize. Planning to Buy After You Sell If selling means you’ll also be purchasing another property, you’ll want to know exactly where you stand financially before listing. Mortgage rules change regularly, and qualifying once doesn’t guarantee you’ll qualify again. Getting a pre-approval in place ensures you know what you can afford and eliminates surprises later. On top of that, reviewing the terms of your existing mortgage could uncover options you may not have considered. For example, porting your mortgage instead of arranging a brand-new one could save you thousands. Selling Without Buying Even if you aren’t planning to buy right away, there’s still an important step: understanding the cost of breaking your mortgage. Unless your mortgage is open, penalties apply—and they can be significant. By reviewing the numbers with a mortgage professional, you might find that simply adjusting your timeline could reduce or even avoid costly fees. Navigating Life Changes In situations like a marital breakdown, it can feel like selling the family home is the only path forward. But that’s not always the case. With the right guidance and a legal separation agreement, one spouse may be able to buy out the other, keeping the home and providing stability for everyone involved. The Bottom Line Selling your property is more than just putting a sign on the lawn—it’s about creating a financial plan that protects your equity and positions you for the best possible outcome. Before you take the leap, let’s sit down and review your options. 📞 If you’re ready to talk strategy and make sure you get top dollar for your property, I’d be happy to connect anytime.