Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 9th, 2020

Marci Deane • Sep 09, 2020

Bank of Canada maintains commitment to current level of policy rate, continues program of quantitative easing.

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, with large-scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds.

Both the global and Canadian economies are evolving broadly in line with the scenario in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with activity bouncing back as countries lift containment measures. The Bank continues to expect this strong reopening phase to be followed by a protracted and uneven recuperation phase, which will be heavily reliant on policy support. The pace of the recovery remains highly dependent on the path of the COVID-19 pandemic and the evolution of social distancing measures required to contain its spread.

The rebound in the United States has been stronger than expected, while economic performance among emerging markets has been more mixed. Global financial conditions have remained accommodative. Although prices for some commodities have firmed, oil prices remain weak.

In Canada, real GDP fell by 11.5 percent (39 percent annualized) in the second quarter, resulting in a decline of just over 13 percent in the first half of the year, largely in line with the Bank’s July MPR central scenario. All components of aggregate demand weakened, as expected.

As the economy reopens, the bounce-back in activity in the third quarter looks to be faster than anticipated in July. Economic activity has been supported by government programs to replace incomes and subsidize wages. Core funding markets are functioning well, and this has led to a decline in the use of the Bank’s short-term liquidity programs. Monetary policy is working to support household spending and business investment by making borrowing more affordable.

Household spending rebounded sharply over the summer, with stronger-than-expected goods consumption and housing activity largely reflecting pent-up demand. There has also been a large but uneven rebound in employment. Exports are recovering in response to strengthening foreign demand, but are still well below pre-pandemic levels. Business confidence and investment remain subdued. While recent data during the reopening phase is encouraging, the Bank continues to expect the recuperation phase to be slow and choppy as the economy copes with ongoing uncertainty and structural challenges.

CPI inflation is close to zero, with downward pressure from energy prices and travel services, and is expected to remain well below target in the near term. Measures of core inflation are between 1.3 percent and 1.9 percent, reflecting the large degree of economic slack, with the core measure most influenced by services prices showing the weakest growth.

As the economy moves from reopening to recuperation, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank is continuing its large-scale asset purchase program at the current pace. This QE program will continue until the recovery is well underway and will be calibrated to provide the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 28, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

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Interest Rate Cut Speculation Heats Up!

By Ask Marci • 06 May, 2024

Rate cut speculation is heating up! We wanted to touch on a few things in regard to the big “interest rate conversation”. Yes, the Bank of Canada will very likely start cutting the Bank of Canada rate this summer (perhaps as soon as next month). This will immediately impact Variable Rate mortgage holders. Currently, the prime lending rate is 7.20% meaning a 0.25% rate cut by the BOC should mean that banks will follow suit and cut prime to 6.95%. The US jobs numbers on Friday have improved the odds of a predicted BOC bank cut. This week rate watchers will be focused on the Canadian numbers (due out on Friday May 10th). Economists that we follow speculate that the current fixed rates are already pricing in the BOC’s first two cuts. This means that a cut in June or July may not impact fixed rates at all. The cut will narrow the spread between fixed and variable. If history is a predictor, this chart we created illustrates this where the green line will simply drop, narrowing the gap between prime, fixed and variable.

How to Save Money for a Downpayment

By Marci Deane • 01 May, 2024

Whether you want to set aside money to buy a car or take a vacation, save up for a down payment on a property, or plan for your retirement, the principles are the same. However, as you’re reading this article on a website dedicated to helping you secure mortgage financing, we’ll assume you want tips on how to save for a down payment! The key to saving money is getting clarity - clarity around your income and your expenses, developing and following a clear plan, and seeking help from professionals who can help you see the big picture as well as the details. Although this might seem fundamental, sometimes going back to basics is the best place to start. Assess your income. If your goal is to save money, you’ll need to identify just how much money you’ve got to work with! The best way to do this is to write everything down. This could be with paper and a pen or on a spreadsheet; whichever way works best for you is fine. The goal is to have all your income in front of you! If you’re on a fixed income or receive a salary for work, your calculations might be pretty simple. Use the income you actually take home, not your gross income. Include an average of your variable income sources like tips, overtime, bonuses, or shift differentials. You should also include other income sources like an annual tax return, and child tax or other government benefits. Spend time to make an exhaustive list of all your income sources. Track your expenses. Once you’ve identified what you have to work with on the income side, the next step is to figure out just how much you actually spend to maintain your current lifestyle. Start by identifying regular bills, then look at your discretionary spending. If you have a budget already in place, you should be able to identify these numbers easily. If not, you can expect that getting clarity around your expenses will be very enlightening. It will be helpful to look through a few months’ worth of bank statements to see just how much money you actually spend. Information is the key to finding clarity. The more information you have, the more equipped you will be to save money. Just like your income, write down all your expenses. This will allow you to assess and reprioritize where you spend your money. Develop and follow a plan. Once you have a clear picture of your income and expenses, you need to figure out how to make more money than you spend. Although that sounds so simple, it really isn’t. The majority of Canadians incur debt because they spend more money than they make. This is why saving money can be so hard. But if we’re going back to basics, remember this: if you’re spending more money than you're making, you need to either increase your income or decrease your expenses to start saving money. There are countless money-saving strategies on the internet; consider following a few financial bloggers, and have fun learning about what works best for you! Seek help from professionals. You’re probably here to learn about how to save money for a down payment because you want to buy a home soon. If that's the case, be assured you're in the right place. Putting together a plan to secure mortgage financing is one plan you don't have to make on your own. As independent mortgage professionals, it’s our job to help you navigate all aspects of mortgage financing. Just like saving for a down payment is about managing income and expenses, so is getting a mortgage. Income and expenses, along with credit and property, are what a lender looks at when assessing your suitability for a mortgage. So while you might assume that putting together a plan to save for a down payment is where you should start, it might not actually be the best place to start. Saving money takes time, and while you're doing that, there are many other things you could be doing at the same time, like building credit to increase your chances of qualifying for a mortgage sooner. When you’re ready to assess your financial situation and put together a plan to save for a down payment and get into a mortgage sooner, please get in touch. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

An Overview of the Home Buying Process

By Marci Deane • 24 Apr, 2024

If you’re in the early stages of planning to buy either your first home or your next home, you’ve come to the right place! Even if you’ve been through it before, the home buying process can be daunting, but it doesn’t have to be when you have the right people on your side! The purpose of this article is to share a high-level view of the home buying process. Obviously, the finer details can be addressed once you’ve submitted an application for pre-approval. But for now, here are some of the answers to general questions you may have as you work through your early preparations. Are you credit-worthy? Having an established credit profile is essential when applying for a mortgage. For your credit to be considered established, you’ll want to have a minimum of two trade lines (credit cards, loans, or lines of credit) with a minimum limit of $2500, reporting for a period of at least two years. From there, you’ll want to make sure that your debt repayment is as close to flawless as possible. Think of it this way: Why would a lender want to lend you money if you don’t have a history of timely repayment on the loans you already have? Making your payments on time, as agreed, is crucial. We all know, however, that mistakes can happen and payments might get missed. If that's the case, it’s best to catch up as quickly as possible! Late payments only register on your credit report if you're past due by 30 days. How will you make your mortgage payments? When providing you with a mortgage, lenders are trusting you with a lot of money. They'll want to feel really good about your ability to pay that money back, over an agreed period of time, with interest. The more stable your employment, the better chances you have of securing mortgage financing. Typically, you’ll want to be employed in a permanent position or have your income averaged over a period of two years. If you’re self-employed, expect to provide a lot more documentation to substantiate your income. How much skin do you have in the game? If you're borrowing money to buy a home, you’re going to have to bring some money to the table. The best down payment comes from accumulating your own funds supported by documents proving a 90-day history in your bank account. Other down payment sources, such as a gift from a family member or proceeds from another property sale, are completely acceptable. In Canada, 5% down is the minimum requirement. However, depending on the purchase price, it might be more. Also, you need to be aware that you will likely have to prove access to at least 1.5% of the purchase price to be allocated for closing costs. How much can you afford? Here’s the thing. What you can afford on paper and what you can afford in real life are often very different amounts. Just because you feel you can afford the proposed mortgage payments, know that you will have to substantiate everything through documentation. The amount you actually qualify to borrow is based on many factors, certainly too many to list in an article designed to provide you with an overview of the home buying process. However, with that said, it’s never too early in the home buying process to seek professional advice. Our services come at no cost to you; it would be our pleasure to help. Working with an independent mortgage professional will allow you to assess your credit-worthiness, provide insight on how a lender will view your income, help you plan for a down payment, and nail down exactly how much you can afford to borrow. And if you need help putting together a plan to improve your financial situation, we can do that too. If you’d like to discuss your financial situation and put together a plan to secure mortgage financing, please get in touch!